Regional Brewery Feasibility Study
This page is a workspace to consider the feasibility of opening a "regional" brewery in Monmouth, IL to serve initially the Central Illinois region. Future plans to expand would include the 7 Midwest states (MI, IN, IL, MO, IA, NM, WI) but NOT "beer-rich" areas such as Chicago or St. Louis.
Areas of Operation
Original operations will target "area 1":
- Monmouth (9K population)
- Galesburg (31K population, 16 miles from Monmouth)
- Macomb (18K population, 33 miles from Monmouth)
- Peoria (115K population, 67 miles from Monmouth)
- Rock Island (38K population, 50 miles from Monmouth)
- Moline (42K population, 50 miles from Monmouth)
- Bloomington-Normal (78K/54K population, 110 miles from Monmouth)
- Springfield (116K population, 120 miles from Monmouth)
- Decatur (73K population, 150 miles from Monmouth)
- Quincy (41K population, 100 miles from Monmouth)
- Rockford (148K population, 165 miles from Monmouth)
- Champaign-Urbana (86K/42K population, 160 miles from Monmouth)
Total Population Area 1 = 891K ~ 1M (including smaller communities)
According to http://www.infoplease.com/us/census/data/demographic.html 70% of the US population is over the age of 21.
- So 70% of 1M = ~700,000 adults in the above population.
According to Gallup poll, see link below, 41% of adults drink beer. For each drinker, they consume 4.1 beers (12 oz) per week.
- So 41% of 700,000 = ~287,000 beer drinker
- 287,000 each consume 4.1 beers per week = ~1.2M beers per week
- If each beer is 12 oz then 1.2M beers is equal to ~110,000 gal (128 oz) per week or ~5.7M gal per year.
- In brewery terms, 5.7M gal is equal to 185K bbls (31 gal) per year.
So, a US population of 1M will consume ~ 185K bbls of beer per year.
Brewing Operations
Brewing operations will be located in Monmouth IL adjacent to interstate 34. Brewing system will be based on 4-vessel system with fermentation capacity to balance production of 40% ale and 60% lagers.
Scenario 1:
- 15 bbl brewing system, brewing 1 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~4K bbls per year...or ~1% of beer market.
Scenario 2:
- 15 bbl brewing system, brewing 2 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~8K bbls per year...or ~2% of beer market.
Scenario 3:
- 30 bbl brewing system, brewing 1 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~8K bbls per year...or ~2% of beer market.
Scenario 4:
- 30 bbl brewing system, brewing 2 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~16K bbls per year...or ~4% of beer market.
Scenario 5:
- 50 bbl brewing system, brewing 1 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~13K bbls per year...or ~3.5% of beer market.
Scenario 5:
- 50 bbl brewing system, brewing 2 per day, 5 day a week.
- total production = ~26K bbls per year...or ~7% of beer market.
Finances
- Material cost per bbl = ~$50
- Labor cost per bbl = ???
- Capital cost per bbl = ???
- overhead cost per barrel = ???
- Sales per bbl = $300
Strategies
- Brew 2-3 "flagship" ales / brew 4-6 "flagship" lagers / 2-3 "specialty" beer for general distribution
- Contract brew for 3-5 smaller breweries
- Can and bottle product
- tap room on site
- offer beers to ball parks (Quad Cites, Peoria, Burlington)
- Guest brewers/resident brewer
- Brew school/lab???